FEEDING 9 BILLION PEOPLE IN 2050

FEEDING 9 BILLION PEOPLE IN 2050

During the next 40 years the world's population is projected to reach more than nine billion people.

Stes de Necker

INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

During the next 40 years the world's population is projected to reach more than nine billion people. 

Demand for food is expected to increase by 60 percent under business-as-usual assumptions. 

Competition for land, water, and food could lead to greater poverty and hunger if not properly addressed now, with potentially severe environmental impacts. 

In the past century global agricultural production more than kept up with increasing demand and real food prices declined steadily, delivering better diets to most of the world's people. 

In the beginning of this century that long-term trend has been reversed with average prices increasing and more frequent price spikes.  And despite increasing abundance, hunger has remained a persistent problem for too many of the world's poor people. 

We now face a confluence of pressures on fragile soils, supplies of water, and competing demands for land. 

Climate change and rising demand for bio fuels provide additional instability in global food systems. 

Kostas Stamoulis, Director, Agricultural and Development Economics Division, FAO said recently, "We must renew efforts to address these challenges. But we in FAO and CGIAR must first help the international community to refocus our commitment to sustainable agriculture and the elimination of hunger in light of these changed circumstances.”

According to Karen Brooks, Director, PIM,   "Engaging key representatives of the research community, the private sector, civil society, donors, and others committed to food and nutrition security will help us all see the bigger picture of what is needed to set priorities and make the best decisions for research. We must try for sound targeting of our research given the enormity of the challenges and what is at stake for all of us, especially the world's poorest and most vulnerable."

AFRICA PERSPECTIVE

Africa frequently experiences food shortages, although its 900 million farmers could feed the continent, as well as supplying other parts of the world. 

But for this to happen they need the support of politicians.

1.    The good news first

African governments, donors and the United Nations have rediscovered Africa’s agricultural sector. For almost two decades they concentrated on urban industrialization. Agriculture was insignificant.

Politicians only woke up following fluctuations on raw materials markets, coupled with a severe food crisis that began in 2008 and subsequent famine-driven rebellions. As a result the German Development Aid Ministry drew up strategy papers outlining a development policy that put the spotlight on agriculture.

In Africa some 900 million people, that’s 90 percent of the total population, work in the agricultural sector. It may not be a perfect comparison but who in Germany would come up with the absurd idea of halting the activities of small and medium-scale handicraft businesses, which guarantee millions of jobs and are a major factor in the country’s economy?

What can Africa’s agricultural sector achieve?

Agriculture means life. Every year one in eight people of the world’s population doesn’t have enough to eat. Most of those going hungry live in South Asia and in sub-Saharan Africa. These figures are alarming.

Can Africa feed itself, and then at some point in the future even provide food for a rapidly growing world?

More specifically, can Africa in the medium-term feed itself and then become a food exporter? This is only possible if local politicians and foreign donors work together.

2.    But here comes the bad news.

In many African countries, commitment to farming is no more than lip-service.

Conditions are lacking for farmers which would make it possible for them not only to fulfil their own needs but also to produce a surplus.

Take Ethiopia for example -nearly 85 percent of the country’s some 90 million people live from the land. But Ethiopia’s authoritarian government, in a show of Marxist nostalgia, still bans private land ownership

a.    Leasing land

Even land leases are uncertain. There is little incentive for farmers to invest in small plots of land to act as erosion protection. Instead they use expensive packets of seeds along with pesticides and herbicides, which in turn leach into the soil, trapping them in a vicious cycle of poverty when harvests are lost and debts increase.

b.    Commercial African banks do not give loans to farmers.

They cannot simply replace old wooden ploughs with modern equipment that would in-turn increase income many fold.

Even in the 21st Century many farmers are denied adequate access to markets, roads to the nearest marketplace are impassable in the rainy season. Studies show that up to 50-percent of African farmers fresh produce rots on the way to market – an unacceptable figure. And so the list goes on.

c. Industrialization in Africa, not possible without agriculture

It won’t take much to increase the productivity of farmers and in turn crop yields, says the DW report. Drip irrigation, crop rotation, seed finishing and organic cultivation are just keywords.

In an attempt to avoid any misunderstandings, it’s not about playing industrialization off against agriculture. But rather, one cannot exist without the other.

Industrialization in Africa must be vigorously promoted to ensure Ivorian cocoa beans are processed in Abidjan rather than Hamburg. At the same time African countries and their donors must meet to agree on a partnership for Africa’s food productivity.

The chances for such are good. After the uprising in Tunisia in 2011, that first ousted politicians then swept the winds of change across North Africa and the Arab world, Africa’s decision makers have been warned.

Hunger has become a political tool of the masses.

Europe’s politician’s have seen what desperation in Lampedusa and Malta’s refugee camps can trigger.

The time has come for a new deal for African agriculture.